Research on the Development of China's Motor Vehicle Exhaust Gas Treatment Industry in 2025: Background, Industrial Chain Map, Current Status, Market Space and Future Trend Forecast - National VII Emi

Driven by the dual impetus of the "dual-carbon" strategy and the battle against mobile source pollution, China's motor vehicle exhaust gas treatment industry is stepping into a rapid development phase driven by both policies and technology. As the primary mobile source of air pollution, currently, NOx emissions from motor vehicles account for 34% of the national total, with heavy-duty trucks contributing over 80% of that proportion. The contribution rate of PM2.5 from motor vehicles in urban central areas generally exceeds 40%, driving a continuous surge in demand for pollution control.

At the regulatory level, China has achieved three major technological leaps from the National VI Emission Standard (including fuel-neutral supervision and particulate number monitoring) to the accelerated preliminary research on the National VII Emission Standard, which focuses on the adaptation to new energy paths such as hydrogen internal combustion engines and silicon carbide electric drives. Up to now, China has established the world's strictest emission control system, which forcibly drives breakthroughs in core technologies like catalyst materials and multi-sensor integration. The industry scale reached 32.8 billion yuan in 2024 and is expected to increase to 38 billion yuan in 2025.

At the market level, the upgrading of the National VII Emission Standard is expected to unlock an incremental market space of over 200 billion yuan. Among this, the aftertreatment sector for gasoline vehicles will release 164.4 billion yuan of market potential through measures such as the upgrading of dual-catalyst systems and the expansion of sensor integration solutions during 2027-2030. In the diesel vehicle sector, the focus will be on the replacement of heavy-duty truck systems, which will generate a demand of 45 billion yuan, forming a "phased" and region-specific implementation pace.

At the industrial end, the demand throughout the entire life cycle of motor vehicles continues to be released: the stock of 460 million motor vehicles forms a stock replacement market; the annual sales of 10 million new vehicles provide front-end increments. Coupled with the deepening of policies such as the "Yellow-to-Green" vehicle modification program and the I/M (Inspection and Maintenance) system, the industry is driven to evolve towards in-depth technological iteration, hierarchical market expansion, and industrial chain ecosystem reconstruction. This has helped establish a dual-track pattern covering the in-depth governance of traditional internal combustion engine exhaust and exhaust gas control for new energy vehicles.